One’s Weather Predictions Are As Good As The Neighbors
As we go into these fall months, one can hear lots of conversation and predictions about what the weather is going to do. One thing…
As we go into these fall months, one can hear lots of conversation and predictions about what the weather is going to do. One thing local farmers don’t want is an early frost. It would be a disaster for grain growers.
With the relatively cool summer in Northeast Ohio, some pessimistic forecasters say there will be an early frost, as early as mid-September. Others are more optimistic and believe it will stay warm well into October. But, who really knows?
Looking at some local weather data on the computer, the odds are there will not be a frost until sometime in October. However, local weather service says there is a 10 percent chance by Sept. 13. On average, it won’t happen, but then the averages can be wrong as well as right.
One set of weather service information I came across said that we quite often don’t get a hard killing frost until Oct. 29. At any rate, we can all guess what this winter will be like and anyone’s guess is as good as anyone others.
One known fact is that maturity of corn and soybeans is running behind a normal year. Some more warm days are needed for the corn ears to mature and the soybean pods to fill with the beans. Just how much time farmers are not sure because it depends on what the weather does to them.
What the weather does to them is what makes farming a business different than most other businesses. So much of what farmers do and how their crops turn out depend on the weather. And, in turn, so does what happens to their pocketbooks and their farm incomes.
Yes, farming is risky business. But, thank goodness there are people willing to take those risks year after year. Given today’s technology and the ability to better forecast the weather 10 or more days ahead, local farmers do find some ways to get ahead of bad weather.
One practice that has helped local growers considerably is tiling the fields for better drainage. Sure, it is expensive, but to get out early and get crops planted, tiling is essential on these local soils and in local weather conditions. It also helps at harvest time.
Larger farm equipment has allowed farmers to get fields planted quicker and ahead of rains. However, larger equipment is expensive and needs more acres to justify the added expense.
Newer varieties of seeds that will withstand wet soils have helped. Also, use of seed protectants to prevent rot and mildew are important.
Looking around the area, one can notice much larger fields. Fence rows that used to be around the small fields are gone and these fields consolidated into the large ones. The practice is done for efficiency of farming these fields. Again, the arm work can be done quicker and that helps with the risks of the weather.
It can be discouraging to grain growers to have a crop of corn or soybeans ready for harvest and then have rains making the fields so wet they can’t get into them. In addition, continuing damp weather keeps the grain moisture content too high for harvest. It they do harvest it, they have to pay to have that grain dried down to moisture content for storage. It is an expense they don’t like, but have to pay if they are going to get any income at all from all their hard work.
Speaking of harvest, predictions for corn prices to farmers this fall are not good. Too much corn in the country keeps farm prices down. Again, the final price will depend on the weather and harvest conditions.
On the other hand, dairy and other livestock farmers often have lower feed costs when corn and soybean prices are low, which is the upside of low grain prices for some farmers.
One thing is certain. The weather gives people something to talk and complain about. It is something that can’t be avoided.
Parker is retired from The Ohio State University and is an independent agricultural writer.
